What is Kp index for aurora?
0 to 9
In order to know whether you have a chance of seeing an aurora, you need to know the level of geomagnetic activity at the time you are viewing. There is a simple index called Kp, a number from 0 to 9, which is used to refer to geomagnetic activity for a 3-hour period.
What organization associated with the National Weather Service monitors Sun activity?
NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
How accurate is the aurora forecast?
Gone are the days when a meteorologist on duty was solely responsible for the text and measurements of the forecast (meaning that sometimes the accuracy of the forecast was not so good). Today, the Northern Lights forecast is 100% automatic.
How did NOAA come up with the Aurora forecast?
In 2011, NOAA (NCEI and SWPC) developed a real-time version of the OVATION model to forecast the location and intensity of the aurora. Machol and Redmon (NCEI) developed the real-time ovation model. Viereck (SWPC) implemented the model and developed the graphical products to run in realtime to create aurora forecasts.
Where does the Aurora occur in space weather?
Aurora. When space weather activity increases and more frequent and larger storms and substorms occur, the aurora extends equatorward. During large events, the aurora can be observed as far south as the US, Europe, and Asia. During very large events, the aurora can be observed even farther from the poles.
Where does the auroral weather forecast come from?
The SWPC version of the Auroral Forecast product is based on the OVATION Prime model developed by P. Newell at the Johns Hopkins, Applied Physics Laboratory. Scientists at the NESDIS National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) added further refinements to make the model run in real time.
How does the 3 day Aurora forecast work?
The 3-Day Aurora Forecast model shows the intensity and location of the aurora as expected for the time shown at the top of the map. This forecast is based on the 0 – 3 day forecast of the planetary geomagnetic activity index, Kp, that is provided as input on a 3-hour cadence.